Tablets
will comprise about 80 percent of all computers sold by 2016, according
to the Consumer Electronics Association’s (CEA) most recent industry
research.
Shawn
DuBravac, the CEA’s chief economist and research director, and Jack
Cutts, CEA’s business intelligence senior manager, gave this bit of data
along with a wide overview of the computer and tablet market at the CEA
Research Summit.
DuBravac
noted that tablets now have a 40 percent home penetration rate and the
products future, at least for the short term, is guaranteed to keep
climbing. However, he added that the market is quickly shifting as
average selling prices are falling for the most popular 7-inch and
8-inch tablets. This should result in a $99 tablet being available by
the holiday selling season, said Cutts.
Looking further down the road, DuBravac wondered how long tablets will sustain their growth.
“We might hit a point in say 18 months when tablet adoption hits a wall,” he said.
In
the meantime, tablet ownership levels will continue to rise. The CEA
expects the majority of this growth to come at the expense of desktops
and netbooks, and by 2016 the household penetration of tablets and
desktop PC will be about dead even, at 60 percent. Right now desktop PC
penetration is at 70 percent.